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CONTRIBUTORS

Francis A. Scotland

Director of Global Macro Research, Brandywine Global

Preview

For the past couple of years, the major macroeconomic developments in the US and to a lesser extent in Europe have reflected the aftershock dynamics of post-pandemic normalization—not your typical business cycle. The economic bust caused by the pandemic and lockdowns and the subsequent barrage of stimulus measures led to massive distortions in the economy, and for the past few years the narrative has been about getting things back on track.

So, what is left to normalize? As we approach what may be the final chapter of this normaliza­tion story, the investment outlook for 2024 comes down to only a handful of the most crucial macro and financial variables yet to return to something more normal: Monetary policy needs to ease, fiscal policy needs to tighten, and interest rates need to move lower.

In this 2024 outlook, our experts share their perspectives on how they expect inflation to influence growth and financial markets. We cover the following topics:

  • Macroeconomic outlook–A tipping point
  • Developed markets fixed income outlook–The year of the coupon+
  • Global currencies outlook–Policy and growth differences drive currency performance
  • Emerging markets outlook–Opportunities in local markets with high nominal and real yields
  • Investment grade credit outlook–Constructive entry point for total return
  • High yield credit outlook–Favorable dynamics persist
  • Structured credit outlook–A tale of three sectors
  • Global equities outlook–Different rate cycles create opportunities
  • US equities outlook–Market weakness and patience point to opportunities


Read the full paper to learn more.

Contributors

WHAT ARE THE RISKS?

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that an investor cannot invest directly in an index. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges.

Equity securities are subject to price fluctuation and possible loss of principal. Fixed-income securities involve interest rate, credit, inflation and reinvestment risks; and possible loss of principal. As interest rates rise, the value of fixed income securities falls. International investments are subject to special risks including currency fluctuations, social, economic and political uncertainties, which could increase volatility. These risks are magnified in emerging markets. Commodities and currencies contain heightened risk that include market, political, regulatory, and natural conditions and may not be suitable for all investors.

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