
Lessons of the Irish Comeback
By Dr. Michael Hasenstab
This commentary originally appeared as an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal on October 7, 2011.
Recently, headline news out of Europe has led investors on a vertigo-inducing
roller-coaster ride. Markets have swung wildly on the latest rumors and fears. Skepticism regarding
Greece's ability to pay back its debt seems to have hardened. However, lost in all the tumult is
one of the euro zone's newly reformed members. Ireland's example could offer other indebted countries
some inspiration for solving their own crises.
Ireland was brought down by its wayward, over-leveraged banking system, which fueled
a private-sector credit boom and a real-estate bubble. But this financial froth belied strong economic
fundamentals and two key competitive advantages for the country: a skilled labor force and a business-friendly
regulatory and tax environment. Moreover, fiscal policy was prudent leading into the crisis. In 2007 Ireland's
public debt was only 25% of GDP¹ and its budget was balanced, albeit thanks, in part, to strong tax
revenues from a credit-fueled economic boom.
The financial crisis and ensuing global downturn dealt a heavy blow. But Irish citizens
and politicians rolled up their sleeves and quickly worked to repair and rebuild. The early results are promising,
with important strides in regaining competitiveness.
Unable to rely on an exchange-rate adjustment, Ireland has engineered a more than 20% drop
in manufacturing unit labor costs since 2008², which boosts its competitiveness equivalent to a 20% currency
depreciation. The underlying broad-based wage cuts have been painful, but they are working: Since January 2008
Ireland's trade surplus has doubled, and now runs at more than 20% of GDP³.
This robust export performance more than offset the ongoing adjustment in the domestic
economy. As a result, Ireland was Europe's second fastest growing economy in the second quarter of this year,
expanding at an annual rate of 2.3%4. The recovery in GDP growth in turn helped Ireland not only to meet
but to exceed the deficit-reduction targets set by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.
Last year Ireland was also the first member of the euro zone's so-called "periphery" to
return to an external current-account surplus, though it dipped back to a deficit this year. The IMF now expects
it to return to a surplus of 2.3% of GDP by the end of next year5. This is in sharp contrast to Greece and
Portugal, which both have current-account deficits still hovering around 10% of GDP6.
Meanwhile, the government has resisted pressure from its EU partners to raise its 12.5%
corporate-tax rate. Dublin's regulatory touch also remains light. This business climate, along with a productive
and educated work force, has served as a magnet for foreign direct investment, which rose 19%7 in the first
half of this year, led by technology and services companies.
Ireland's policies have also pulled its banks back from the brink. The country has
recapitalized its banking system, which continues to de-leverage aggressively. The country's banking stress-tests
have been among the most demanding and credible in Europe-the only ones to have relied on an independent external
agency instead of just government regulators.
Beyond the country's strong economic fundamentals, broad social and political consensus sets
Ireland apart. Austerity is bitter medicine to swallow, but Ireland's citizens understand there was no easy way
out of their predicament and that their short-term sacrifices are laying the ground for sustainable growth in the
future. Thanks to this general social consensus-in contrast to the rioting and protests seen further south in
Europe-and despite a change in government, Ireland's reforms remain fully on track.
While policy makers in the euro zone take the difficult steps to ensure the single currency's
survival, markets will remain volatile and be tempted to paint all embattled European countries with the same brush.
But that would only repeat an old mistake. During the first 10 years of the euro's existence, markets ignored the
fact that some member countries were accumulating unsustainable imbalances-only to be caught off-guard when sovereign
spreads suddenly widened.
Ireland's path forward will be long and demanding. But it also offers a roadmap for other
governments that face large debt burdens. If investors would be shortsighted to overlook Ireland's progress toward
lower debt and faster growth, other governments would have to be blind to ignore how Dublin has managed it.
Mr. Hasenstab is senior vice president, portfolio manager and co-director of the international
bond department for Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group.
Mr. Hasenstab is senior vice president, portfolio manager and co-director of the
international bond department for Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group.
- International Monetary Fund
- OECD, Quarterly benchmarked Unit Labour Cost indicators - By economic activity, http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=ULC_QUA, accessed on 10/06/11
- Central Statistics Office Ireland
- Central Statistics Office Ireland
- International Monetary Fund
- International Monetary Fund
- Central Statistics Office Ireland
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